Biggest blow yet to Keir Starmer that means his days as PM are numbered

Tomorrow is the first day back in Westminster after last week's dramatic election results and Keir Starmer will face a mutinous Parliamentary Labour Party. Nigel Farage's party Reform UK returns to Parliament riding high on its success and with an extra MP, taking its total back to five, plus hundreds of new councillors.

We Conservatives will also return, hugely disappointed at losing 635 of the 954 seats we were defending, which was inevitable as these elections were last fought when Boris Johnson was riding high in the polls. But what is far more dramatic was the collapse of the Labour Party just 10 months on from winning a landslide victory in the General Election.

Back in 2021 these elections were terrible for Labour. It lost the Hartlepool by-election and the party's overall results were so bad that Starmer's leadership was said to be at risk. Incredibly, last week - from that historic low base - Labour only won 98 of the 296 council seats they were defending.

The big question now is how many of Labour's 402 MPs will turn against Starmer?

Labour MPs have stayed silent and loyal to him up until now despite getting it in the neck from their voters. Losing the Runcorn and Helsby by-election - previously Labour's 16th safest seat in the country - will provide the dynamite to burst that dam of silence. Not travelling to Runcorn to help at the by-election was a major mistake by Starmer. His invisibility on the ground has been translated as weakness, especially as it's unheard of for a new Prime Minister not to campaign in their party's first by-election.

Given Labour only lost by six votes, such a lack of leadership is both hard to fathom and unforgivable. Starmer's tone-deaf response to the defeat was an even bigger error. He said the result showed he needed to go "further and faster". What on earth does he mean? Go "further" with tax increases and "faster" letting boatloads of illegal immigrants into the country?

The exact opposite is true. Labour didn't haemorrhage votes in their heartlands because the country wants even more of the same. The country doesn't want Starmer to go further and faster, they just want him to go. Such has been Starmer's disastrous first 10 months in office, his approval ratings have fallen faster than any other PM since the 1970s.

His buzzword is "change". But change to what? It seems the only change coming is Starmer rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic as a reshuffle is mooted for June with Minister for Women and Equalities Bridget Phillipson expected to be moved and Lisa Nandy and Lucy Powell for the chop. My guess is Ed Miliband will also be shown the door.

This type of tinkering won't solve Starmer's problems. The Prime Minister needs to deliver on his election pledge to "smash the gangs" and stop illegal immigration, but the chances of Labour doing that range from nil to zero.

With Farage and his Reform party currently hoovering up votes in traditional working-class Labour areas, and the Greens making giant strides in the metropolitan heartlands, how long will it be before nervous Labour MPs demand a change at the top of their party?

I suspect it won't be long. Starmer's days are already numbered.